The movement of the U.S. dollar fluctuated against the major currencies

Economic Analysis

The USD

A sharp decline of the U.S. dollar

Fluctuated movement of the U.S. dollar against major currencies yesterday after the announcement of the decision that the Fed will keep interest rates at their current low levels in the near future. Investors have interpreted this statement as a signal that the U.S. economic recovery still has a way to walk in it, and have sold the U.S. currency as a result. The EUR / USD highs yesterday at 1.3720 before he suffered a slight downward correction. The pair is trading at the moment around the 1.3700 level. The USD / JPY fell more than 40 points last night and is currently trading at 82.15.

Today, the group may be expected U.S. economic data today as downward pressure on the dollar. At 13:30 GMT, traders will focus on core durable goods orders and weekly rates of U.S. Unemployment Claims, while at 15:00 will be announced sales of homes that have not finished the process built. It is known that all these indicators result in higher rates of price volatility in the market, it is expected that all come low readings.

If today's economic data came low readings as expected, for traders caution that the EUR / USD could test the 1.3785 resistance level. At the same time, it would be difficult to predict what will come by the weekly jobless claims. But if this report reads less than expected at 407 thousand, the U.S. dollar may see short-term gains in the afternoon.

The EUR

Conflicts of trading the euro against major currencies

Although the euro has seen steady gains against the U.S. dollar yesterday, but it has seen a downward trend against the British pound and the Japanese yen. The EUR / GBP by 60 points on S and is currently trading around the 0.8605 level. The euro / yen has dropped by more than 40 points yesterday before witnessing a slight correction. At present, the pair is trading around the 112.50 level.

Analysts have attributed the conflicting movement of the euro to predictions that the euro zone may raise interest rates from their own by the United States of America. At the same time, confirmed to the British monetary policy committee on the positive outlook for the growth rate of the British economy, which has resulted in increases in the pound.

Today, traders will focus on the core data with leaders from America. Following forecasts refer to the decline of many reports of several sectors of the U.S. economy. And if so the euro may get more support against the greenback. Analysts expect at this time to test the EUR / USD 1.3785 resistance level before the end of the day.

Japanese Yen JPY

Japanese Yen recorded strong gains negotiated the dollar and the euro

The Japanese yen saw a positive session against most major currencies. Having recorded the highest level at 82.60 yesterday, saw the dollar / yen downward correction is currently trading around the 82.15 level. Has seen the euro / yen downward movement similar to last night, down by more than 40 points before the movement upward correction is very small. At the moment the pair is located at the 112.55 level.

Expected to increase Yen gains today, on the assumption that U.S. data to be announced today will come as low as is her expectation. Are likely to result in negative data from the U.S. to decline in the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar as a safe haven while potentially high yen.

Today, traders will want to pay attention directed to the minutes of a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Japan to be released at 23:50 GMT. If stated in this statement any forecasts a high rate of growth in the Japanese economy may lead to further upward movement n the yen.

Crude Oil Crude Oil

Oil prices remain above $ 87 a barrel

Crude oil received continuous support yesterday, as pay Item investors to rise after the last speech of U.S. President Barack Obama. Oil prices rose from $ 86.18 yesterday until it reached its highest price of $ 87.75 before that there will be slight downward true. At present, crude oil is trading at $ 87.37 a barrel.

Today, traders will want to pay attention directed to the basic economic indicators which will be announced n America. Expected at the moment the U.S. dollar's decline after the announcement of economic data today. It is worth noting that oil prices rise when the dollar is in a downward direction, as investors see this item as an alternative investment to the U.S. currency. If oil gets support today, it is likely to test the resistance level of $ 88.00.

Technical Analysis

EUR / USD EUR / USD

All technical indicators over the long term to the pair floating in the overbought territory, indicating that the occupier that there will be a downward correction today. Formed a bearish cross on the Slow Stochastic on the daily chart, while Williams Range is the daily chart for eight hours at -5. Traders are advised to go short today.

GBP / USD GBP / USD

Shows through most of the technical indicators that the pair floating in neutral territory at the moment, in spite of the presence of signals on the daily chart indicates that the pair approaching overbought territory. But overall traders are advised to wait for the day, where the likely emergence of a clearer sign later in the day.

U.S. dollar / Japanese Yen USD / JPY

Set both the RSI and the Williams daily chart for eight hours in the oversold territory, indicating that an upward correction is possible today. Traders are advised to open long positions before the break-up.

U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc USD / CHF

A bullish cross on the Slow Stochastic on the chart for eight hours to a possible upward movement. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index on the daily chart is in oversold territory. It may be long with tight stops might be the best strategy today.

Wild Card

Canadian Dollar / Swiss Franc CAD / CHF

Williams Range is daily on the daily chart is oversold and descended to the top, indicating that it is the occupier to be the next move for the pair is bullish. This theory is supported by a bullish cross on the Slow Stochastic on the chart for eight hours. Now may be an excellent time for forex traders to enter into long positions on this pair before the break-up occurs.

Weekly analysis of the currency market today

U.S. economic data released last week total close to expectations. The most important data that were better than expected are: net inflows of foreign capital into U.S. Treasury bonds issued long-term 85.10 to 46.70 and 28.9 estimate compared to the previous month, indicating the high level of long-term investments in the United States by foreign countries. Building permits for new housing exported 0.64 million compared to 0.56 million and 0.54 million the previous month. Existing Home Sales Index, which determines the annual level of existing houses sold in the past month issued 5.28 million compared to 4.80 million and 4.70 million the previous month. Initial Jobless Claims also recorded a decline indicating a slight recovery of the U.S. economy compared to the previous month. Overall, the U.S. economy improved record everything related to real estate and unemployment.

Will be issued several important economic data this week, led by consumer confidence index, new home sales index, interest rate decision, complaints unemployment rate and finally on Friday, the GDP index.

European Union

Has not made many of the economic data in Europe last week. The most important data that were issued were positive, including confidence index ZEW of the German economy, which reflects the difference between the number of investors optimists and the number of investors are pessimistic as released 15.40 vs. estimate 6.30 Hence we saw rose today the euro against most major currencies until the end of last week. Among the important data to be released In Europe this week, the PMI for both Germany and France and the level of money supply M3.

Australia

Did not issue any economic data last week significance in Australia either the main factor that impact on the economy is not necessarily a given economic, but the floods which caused damage to manufacturing and export of Australia and the Australian Government still does not know the exact result of the floods on the economy. After the disaster will clarify the picture and will be reflected on the Australian dollar and gold, of course. As for the Australian dollar has recorded lower against most major currencies.

Stock markets

United States

Began trading stock markets on Tuesday due to a bank holiday in the United States on Monday, which is usually the first day for تدوال and this has been characterized by low liquidity markets.

NASDAQ (NASDAQ) opened the session and close the level of 2,744.80 2,689.54 has no record decline of 2.01-percent. Despite the good economic data released, the dollar index value of -1.51% decline.

European Union

Opened the German DAX (DAX) at the level of 7,072.75 and closed the session at the level of 7,062.42 any impairment -0.146%, while the French CAC 40 opened (cac40) at the level of 3,984.09 and closed session at 4,017.45 0.837% rise.

Britain

Began last week in Britain with data is positive, the consumer price index and the rate of change in complaints of unemployment in Britain who scored low rate of complaints in Britain decline by 4100 versus forecasts pointed to a loss in 1400 was recorded FTSE (FTSE) high to reach the summit and the resistance level is 3590, which was trading higher than a month ago October 2008. After arriving this summit, we saw a technical correction for the cursor back and score close the بمقربة 3543. In total, index registered a weekly decline by 0.46% -.

Currency Pairs Analysis

EUR / USD

The pair started down the first trading day of last week to come back and record heights with the end of the week, showing a significant increase last Friday (closed بمقربة level of 1.3620), which is supposed to keep investors on the direction revolutionary with the beginning of the week this week, does not show any of the indicators standard deviation or Overbought, the pair break through the resistance line بمقربة 1.3440 and the next so فاهداف pair are 1.3647 and 1.3749. الذان if the pair recorded a high higher them Vsedl that to complete the march rise up to the level of 1.4000.

GBP / USD

Continued to pair marched rise that began 3 weeks ago, where he scored continuous except for gains on Thursday as a result of good data in the United States (touched upon at the top), the pair closed بمقربة the first line of resistance 1.599. With the opening of the market this week will be easier to determine the direction of the pair, if the pair closed higher 1.599 in the first trading day, the possibility of continued rise be featured so highly 1.6090 resistance line. Reverse scenario indicates a technical correction represents a buying opportunity but it is difficult to determine to what extend this price correction.

EUR / AUD

Australian dollar sales seem obvious but certain pairs more profitable than others, the euro recorded notable gains this week possibility of buying the EUR / AUD looks attractive. The EUR / AUD record high 1.866%, or 252 points, the next resistance line be بمقربة to 1.3790, the pair acted beginning of the week could be a buying opportunity if the pair closed higher at 1.3790 level. If the pair closed down axis 1.3600 level, preferred to wait for data indicate the final flood bill.

Positive comments from Trichet supports the strength of the euro

Economic analysis

U.S. Dollar USD

Dollar starts week down

At the end of last week's trading, the U.S. dollar was trading at low levels against the major currencies. Has been the U.S. currency for the sale of a large-scale led to decline after differing expectations for interest rates between America and the rest of Europe; where projections indicate now that rising inflationary pressures in both the European Union and Britain could force central banks there to raise interest rates to combat rising inflation more .

At the same time, inflationary pressures are still low in America, where the Fed continues to ease monetary policy. The Fed did not give any signal its intention to stop the quantitative easing program, but it seems that it is still seeking to complete the attic to buy $ 600 billion of Treasuries.

The dollar could continue its decline this week if the momentum continues to favor add more Cefqatabie the U.S. dollar. The basic data expected from America this week's Consumer Confidence Index and the meeting of the Committee Federal Open Market on Wednesday and GDP on Friday for the fourth quarter of 2010.

The EUR

Positive comments from Trichet supports the strength of the euro

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, declared Jean-Claude Trichet, the European Central Bank about the intention of the European Central Bank to fight inflation despite the differences in growth rates between Europe and the surrounding countries. Trichet was in his view of the stresses inflation and vowed to fight inflationary pressures. It is worth mentioning that the inflation rate last month in the European Union rose by 2.2%. This was the first time in two years that the high rate of inflation from the target of the European Central Bank at 2.0%.

The President of the European Central Bank that the bank would fight inflation, which is caused due to the rise in commodity prices and food. Trichet also supported the idea of ​​setting limits and restrictions in the budget and the imposition of fiscal rules in the European Union, a proposal to continue the control of EU countries with the imposition of austerity measures there. Trichet does not see that there is a risk of recession due to reduced budgets.

There have been strong demands on the euro last week against both the U.S. dollar and the Swiss franc, with increased interest-rate differentials between Europe and the rest of the world. If released more hawkish comments from European Central Bank interest rates may be this additional support for the euro in the new trading week.

While this does not happen for more than two years, did not forget traders certainly when lifting the European Central Bank interest rates in July of 2008, a few months before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. "And therefore traders will watch for any comments from European Central Bank president in the coming period .

Japanese Yen JPY

The resumption of the dollar / yen for a downward trend

Recent price action suggests a continuation of a long-term downward trend of the dollar / yen. After this pair rise with the new year to the 83.70 level, the pair began now in a new low, where record lows last week at 81.80.

The renewed strength of the yen lead to the emergence of another wave of intervention and the Japanese Ministry of Finance in the market. It is worth mentioning that the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervened in the forex market in نتصف September in order to weaken the yen

With the continued strength of the Japanese yen, traders should take into account the possibility of intervention and the Japanese Ministry of Finance in the case of push to new highs. Traders should monitor the level of 82 and whether there will be continued in the selling of the dollar / yen below.

May hold the meeting of the Bank of Japan monetary policy statement accompanying him on Tuesday to tone down for forex traders who intend to test the desire of Japanese policy makers to intervene again in the foreign exchange market.

CRUDE OIL crude oil

Recovery in crude oil prices from the lowest level on Thursday

And reached the spot prices of crude oil last week to the highest level in two and a half year, but closed the week at a low level. This has helped prices to rise higher improvement in the economy and positive views toward the economy. The high reading China's total jewelery production to growing expectations that China will take further measures in its monetary policy to curb rising inflation. Thus, any tightening of monetary policy in China may lead to a reduction of growth rates and demand for commodities.

The crude oil prices stabilized on Friday after a sharp decline of 2.75% on Thursday. This therefore may be a buying opportunity for crude oil, where prices are approaching the 87.20 support level, which represents the rising trend line that started from the lowest level in August, which is today at the same level.

Technical Analysis

EUR / USD EUR \ USD

Close the chart of the Japanese candles for this pair model head Almst "shaved head", thus indicating that the momentum to the upside. Thus traders can expect further gains for the pair with a target Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% to the price movement n November to January. This represents a key resistance level from October at 1.3740.

GBP / USD GPB \ USD

The pair has recorded significant gains since the beginning of the year, up from lows at 1.5340 to the highest level last week at 1.6060. It seems that the pair gets support from the exponential moving average for ten days, which today stands at the 1.5885 level. This may be an appropriate level for the development of a stopping point for the purchase order.

USD / JPY USD / JPY

The pair found resistance level Thursday when the moving average of fifty-five days, and who had worked in the past as a support or resistance level is good. This level comes the day at 83.10. Your support is located the pair at a record low last week at 81.80.

USD / CHF USD / CHF

The bearish trend continues for this pair, where the bounce of the level of 61.8% retracement of the December movement, before it turns down. Traders go short on this pair with a target level of support at 0.9520. Resistance comes in at 0.9685 and 0.9780.

Wild Card

Gold GOLD

After the completion of the head and shoulders pattern last week broke the neckline upward trend below the lows in the period between October and January, it seems that the price of this item (the price of gold - gold price) back towards the neckline. This might give forex traders a chance to enter the sale if prices approached in today's neckline at $ 1.360

U.S. dollar

Can not at the moment the real trend is expected in relation to the U.S. dollar in the currency market the coming period, it is difficult at the moment the fact predicted path of the U.S. dollar over the coming weeks. In general, it is the simple technical point of view, it is possible to say that the U.S. dollar has put himself in the position of the prospects for the downward trend coming period, and after the rise in EUR / USD back above 1.3500 levels during trading last Friday. In general, rolling professional may be noted that the movement recorded by the EUR / USD in the currency market are not reflected significantly on the major pairs other last week, in fact, those couples are still a far cry from their peaks and still the U.S. dollar recorded good levels where . But in general, the prospects for the next direction of the U.S. dollar is still difficult at this time to expect more minutes.

As is customary for the currency market, where rates are still risk of the important factors that must be considered in order to anticipate the movement of prices coming period and, in general, they may not be high at the moment, but we have seen during previous periods recorded a change and a rise abruptly due to any news may be issued and then changed direction abruptly currencies and fast. But there are plenty of indicators that could be pursued to measure rates of risk and try to anticipate its course in the market. Among those indicators that should be pursued is the financial situation and news from the European financial crisis, there is still the situation in the European region, mysterious and somewhat negative. In the past weeks, the European Union was working hard to address the financial problems facing the European region now, but it has yet to reach any agreement unspoken yet to face the current financial problems. This is in addition to the news coming from China, which is possible to raise interest rates soon, and Japan could face problems related to debt also, in addition to watching news on the outcome of business for the fourth quarter of last year, which could have a significant impact on the movement of financial markets, the coming period.

In general, it is difficult at this time to identify the factors that could represent a real threat to the market is clear, but it is possible to be very important for traders to do the follow-up news awaited publication of the Fed even though it is the expectation that there is a radical change in the bank's policy on interest rates, but traders should follow the data on the decisions on economic stimulus programs in 2011.

On the other hand it is expected during the week new release of important data from the United States, such as the results of the gross domestic product for the fourth quarter the U.S., and in general, the U.S. economy seems to be on the right path towards a good recovery rates. But despite of that, but it should not be seen only to those indicators and data only, but must also look at other news and data in order to reach the rule is suitable for the general situation in the market, it must take into account the difference between the rates of risk and growth rates in the market, through Other economic data on the European crisis and U.S. economic data as well.

Euro

The euro rose to its highest level in months against the U.S. dollar during trading last week, and in general, this performance comes amid a state of calm on the European situation at the moment which made a lot of industrialized nations ten expect a further improvement in the coming period in the euro area . In general, this has led to higher demand for debt instruments in addition to the release of some positive economic data, which contributed to the rise in the euro significantly against the U.S. dollar. In general, it had been issued data from the magazine "Wall Street," pointed out that the meeting of European debt auctions during the month of January pointed to higher cash inflows in the European economy at the moment which support the euro's rise against the U.S. dollar during last week's trading.

But over the next few days, the hearing auctions bonds, Italian, Spanish, Slovak and Spanish will occupies a lot of your attention dealers, in addition to data rates of consumer confidence Germans and inflation rates as well, which could lead to the euro's rise a little, in general, all expectations these data suggest the possibility of the euro continued to rise, especially as psychological indicators for dealers indicate the direction towards buying, dealers dramatically the last period.

The technically and study the movement of historical price, it was discovered that the rise or decline of the euro / dollar in the currency market during the month of January was helping rolling in predicting the movement during the period between February and December, including nearly 70% of the time almost, and that was even In 1999, in general, the recent weeks indicate that the EUR / USD had recorded a rise the previous period, but at the moment is difficult to know whether this rise in the euro the main reason it is a buyer's real or that the reason it is doing coverage sales centers that had been opened on the pair last period, so the time is the only factor that could explain the movement of the pair during the coming period significantly.

GBP

As has been previously noted, the outlook for monetary policy, the British are still the factor most powerful influential stock GBP / USD in the currency market, which is closely linked to at the moment returns on bonds for two to five years and, in general, this correlation reflects the large rates of risk in in a market that also affect the stock significantly currencies.

In terms of fiscal policy, the Bank of England is scheduled to issue a report "Minutes" for the Special Meeting of the Commission on British policies and in general it is expected that cares traders largely coming period, and significantly it when follow-up expectations for dealers and through the Bank Credit Suisse they expect that the Bank of England to raise interest rates next period despite the lull in economic growth rates this time, in order to control inflation.

In fact, the central bank had indicated that inflationary pressures during 2010 were temporary somewhat and it is expected to continue the situation in the medium term without the bank tightened monetary policy, but it appeared that the central bank vision was wrong somehow, as inflationary pressures became clear dramatically over the long term in the United Kingdom, and in the event of any development in reading GDP for the fourth quarter, it is possible to use it as a kind of expectation for further inflationary pressures in the future, so traders will be watching largely private data of the report " Minutes "At the same time, the quarterly report on the outlook for inflation rates issued by the Bank of England.

In terms of the psychological state of dealers, all eyes in the currency market at the moment will pursue week full of economic data for the United States of America, in general, it is important that data is preliminary reading on GDP for the fourth quarter and, in general, the dealers also We will follow closely Comments expected issuance of U.S. officials coming period on growth rates and the recovery of the U.S. economy, and undoubtedly the rates of risk will remain the strongest and most important factor which could affect the movement of prices substantially coming period.

Global economic growth leads to a falling dollar

The dollar's decline over the week

The dollar fell on Friday to its lowest level since two months amid growing confidence about global economic growth against the backdrop of China to allow its currency to rise to 6.5815, a new record. And increased spreads between the greenback and other major currencies during last week with growing optimism about economic growth and growing speculation higher interest rates in Europe and the United Kingdom, which led to the exposure of the dollar to more pressure. And the impact of the significant improvement in the business confidence index in Germany, prepared by the Institute "IFO", the euro rose to 1.3626, its highest level in two months. After trading opened at 1.3390 on Monday morning, during the day fell to 1.3245 then progress steadily over the following days to close on Friday evening at 1.3621. The pound took a path parallel to the path of the euro, benefiting from higher rates of return as inflationary pressures led to speculation that the Bank of England forced to raise interest rates sooner than had been expected. The pound has been trading at levels higher than 1.6050 on Tuesday before closing at the end of trading on Friday at 1.6000, recording a gain of 0.8% during the week. And well as Japanese Njuhalin in strengthening his position against the U.S. currency rose to 81.85 against the dollar before losing some of its gains and closed at 82.87 at the end of the week.

 Disparate data for the housing sector

Still the housing sector sends mixed signals but they are still a whole indicate continued weakness in the sector after more than a year at the beginning of the economic recovery in the United States, has fallen Housing starts increased by 4.3% to reach annual rate to 529,000 units, the lowest level for this the index since October 2009. In parallel, the number of building permits jumped, an indicator used to estimate the movement of construction in the future, up to a monthly average of 16.7% in the month of December, reflecting the attempts that have been made during the month to get approvals before the end of the year. Finally, new home purchases rose by 12% to reach 5.28 million units on an annual basis, the performance exceeded market expectations. There is no doubt that the sales volume positively affected endeavor of buyers to take advantage of low interest rates on mortgages before they result in the continuation of the economic recovery to increase borrowing costs.

Lower jobless claims

Decreased over the past week, unexpectedly rose more than forecast, the number of Americans who applied for the first time claims for compensation for the loss of their jobs, in what is considered another indication that the labor market may have started to improve. The number of jobless claims by 37,000 claims in the week ending January 15, up to 404.000 claim, noting that expectations among market had unanimously 425.000 claim, and the unemployment rate reached 9.4%, according to the latest reports.

Eurozone

In Germany ...

Business confidence index at its highest level since 20 years

Benchmark German business confidence in December to its highest level since two decades thereby adding new signs that the recovery in Europe's biggest economy has become more and more dependent on domestic demand, the business environment index prepared by the German Economic Institute (IFO) to 110.3 points in January, compared with 109.8 points in the previous month. It should be noted that the German economy has achieved a great leap and strong over the past year where it came from increased exports accompanied by signs of strong alleged improvement in domestic demand, which may be behind the government's decision this week raised its economic growth forecast in 2011 to 2.3%.

In Europe ...

Consumer confidence down again

Consumer confidence fell in seventeen countries that make up the euro zone and in the month of January for the second month in a row, hitting the lowest level since August 2010. The consumer confidence index fell to 11.4-during the month compared to 11 - in December, which was also the number that were among the market expects.

United Kingdom

Inflation at its highest level since 8 months

Acceleration of inflation and rates exceeded the expectations of economic observers to reach an annual rate of 3.7% on the back of rising fuel and food prices, thereby adding further pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates sooner than had been expected. The prices during the month rose by 1%, the largest increase recorded in any one month since the start of the use of this index in 1996, while the core inflation rate was 2.9% on an annual basis. Given that the level of inflation is higher than the target level of 3%, should have become the governor of the Bank of England to draw a book years explaining this rise. At the same time, said members of the British House of Commons and who are bent on the performance audit of the Bank of England that they are worried about rising prices and accelerated want to hear assurances from the Bank of England that the bank did not lose control of inflation.

In a separate development, the index of retail price inflation, a measure of the cost of living is used Riisie in negotiations on wages, to 4.8% in December, compared with 4.7% in the previous month.

Improved consumer confidence

Consumer confidence index rose in the United Kingdom from the lowest level in 20 months during the month of December with the expectation that the British significant raced to buy household goods before the start of the application of the planned increase to the sales tax. This index rose 8 points to 53 points, in the first recorded gains in four months while the value-added tax on sales of goods and services increased by 2.5% up to 20% on Jan. 4.

Unemployment remains at 7.9%

There has been no change in the unemployment rate, which is measured according to the standards of the International Labour Organization (ILO), where he settled at the level of 7.9% for the three months to the end of November, compared with 10.1% in the euro area and 9.4% in the U.S. and 5.1% in Japan. It should be noted that the new government is betting on the continuation of the private sector in creating new jobs at a time when the government is preparing to dispense with 330,000 employees in the public sector over the next four years. Separately, a decline in the month of December, and unexpectedly, the number of claims for unemployment to its lowest level in 21 months, and reached this downturn 4.100 claim to decrease the total number of claims to 1.457 million claims. The Office for National Statistics report that the unemployment rate in the age group of 16 - 24 years old now reached its highest level since 1992.

Retail sales decline

Snowfall between the hammer and the anvil of rising prices

Although the holiday shopping season on the occasion of holidays in Britain, retail sales biggest decline during the month of December influenced heavily falling snow and high prices, the sales decreased by 0.8% during the month compared with a rise of 0.4% in the previous month and also the expectations of decline of 0.2%. It should be noted that sales have not changed from a year earlier, noted that December was the coldest month that in the United Kingdom since the century.

Japan

Continued decline in consumer confidence

A survey showed consumer confidence in Japan this indicator fell for the sixth consecutive month, falling to 40.1 points in December from 40.4 points in November, weighed down consumer concern about the chances of retaining their jobs. The prime minister's office announced that it is still at the previous appreciation of the situation is that "consumer confidence has become less powerful." Among the factors that attributed to the this retreat weak desire to buy durable goods on the one hand and the working conditions have become more difficult than the other.

World News

 For the ninth month in a row China's property prices continue to rise

Property prices rose in 70 Chinese cities rose 6.4% in December from a year earlier and down 0.3% compared to the previous month. It is expected to result in higher prices to the growing concerns that the resort on the government to tighten restrictions designed to reduce the risk of a bubble property and that by raising the benchmark interest rate and raise the capital requirements imposed on banks, note that the prices of existing homes rose 0.5% in December, In its biggest rise in three months.

Acceleration of economic growth in China coincides with the decline in inflation

Acceleration of the rate of real economic growth in China to reach 9.8% rise in retail sales and industrial production, surpassing the 9.4% agreed by the expectations of the market as well as the growth rate of 9.6% in the previous quarter. Separately, slowed consumer price index (CPI) for up to 4.6% on an annual basis in December, compared with 5.1% in the month of November, which was the highest rate since 28 months.

The increase of gold and economic connotations

Know the money in the science of economics as anything used in the exchange process, which is intended to do transactions and trade exchanges or buy debt. Through the ages old man knew multiple forms of money was in the forefront of what is known in the economic literature of commodity money, including precious commodities such as gold. Gold continued as the leading precious commodities significant particularly in human life to this day because of the social and economic factors. Economically, gold achieves two major and two of the three functions of money, the two first: Agent for the exchange to do transactions and debt purchase. Many of the individuals who sell gold reserve by to conduct economic exchanges. Moreover, uses Alzhpkgueta to the national currency in most countries of the world through retain international Balzhpkahtiattiyat. Secondly, a store of value and this means the ability to move and maintain its purchasing power over time because of the high social stature in different human societies, and also because central banks hold an international currency reserves. In contrast, it was unable to gold to maintain third function is to be a unit of account which is used in the pricing of goods and services in day trades, and the reason is that the available gold is limited in the world and is available in certain countries compared with the expansion and the large trade exchange between countries and within a single country. Therefore, human resorted to minting metal and printing paper money to facilitate and accelerate the process of economic exchange. In spite of that, he remained gold commodity or currency safest haven in the world, especially in cases of high inflation. Where individuals usually resort in cases of high inflation cash to convert their assets into fixed assets in the form of property, land and gold. Valencod get a return Liquid is real interest rate is known in the economic literature بحاصل subtract the inflation rate from the interest rate provided by banks on deposits. In situations of high inflation becomes a high inflation rate exceeds the interest rate provided by the banks, this means that the money you lose part of the liquid value. In contrast, the gold does not get the interest rate! Quite the contrary, the retention of gold as a commodity or currency required to pay the cost of storage and insurance. From here, we can say that retention depends primarily gold, especially at this stage, the expected return on other assets, namely real interest rate.

Performance data for the U.S. economy and published on the website of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis confirms that U.S. interest rates until the middle of the month of October / October of this year and at various financial assets in a steady decline, so it touches the zero percentile on some assets sometimes, especially short-term . The performance data for the European Central Bank for the euro zone emphasizes the fact apparent decrease in the level of interest rates, but it remains at a level higher than the level of U.S. interest rates and margin may reach an average of 1-2%, I believe that these facts confirm that the rise in gold prices is closely linked to policy monetary expansion in both the United States and the euro zone. These policies work to reduce the return on alternative assets, thus becoming the best gold commodity or currency can be acquired by investors to reduce risk, especially in an environment of bankruptcy and continuing collapse in the banking sector. It should be noted according to several news agencies reported that the number of banks that collapsed in the United States amounted to around 99 banks until mid-October / October of this year!

May be the rise in gold prices an indication of investors to central banks and government policies on not convinced by the performance of these policies for the global economy out of the crisis. So gold has become the currency that represents the channel to escape from the investment and to ensure that the wealth of investors with high uncertainty. So we can say that the rise in gold prices came as a reaction of investors reject the idea of ​​venture currently and preferred to stay safe until blurred vision, this new behavior adds the value of knowledge is that investors do not resort to buying gold in cases of high inflation, just as previously mentioned, but resort to buy gold in the cases of the low level of real interest rates due to expansionary monetary policy in sync with the existence of a state of mistrust global macroeconomic performance.

Bet to remain expansionary monetary policy-makers aimed to revive the global economy is betting on the decline in the levels of exchange rates, especially the dollar, to boost exports and reduce the deficit in the trade balances to pay the total demand of new to ensure flight of the economy away from recession. In this regard, highlights two important and interrelated questions. I: Are income levels in the importing countries are able to achieve this goal in light of the large losses in wealth and income levels? In other words, you fall in the exchange rates of the developed countries is able to compensate for the loss in income levels in developing countries? I do not think so! Second: What is the expected rate of inflation in the coming period? I believe that the fastest impact of lower exchange rates, especially the dollar, is the rapid rise in oil prices, the fact that oil is a resident of dollars in global markets.

Moreover, the oil is the lifeblood of economic and fundamental in the process of entrance

Production, not to mention that now prevails winter in the northern hemisphere.

It must be remembered that investors are fleeing from investment idea to buy gold. Thus, if the current situation continues as it is, it is expected that the world is experiencing a wave of inflation caused by the decline in overall width able to cancel the positive impact of lower exchange rates.

In summary, the expansionary monetary policy reduced the level of interest rates and exchange rates, especially the dollar. At the same time investors feel that this time is not suitable for real investment because of lack of visibility and uncertainty. Therefore, investors resorted to buying gold as a safer alternative currency. This shift will cause no increase (or decrease) in the level of overall width. Not to mention the rise in oil prices due to the low exchange rate of the U.S. dollar, which will lead to higher costs for producers and lower overall width. This analysis is expected higher prices and lower production in the next phase. . . I hope that this will not happen.